Bitcoin prepares for CPI showdown as BTC price dips below $19K cost basis

BTC price performance declines in line with U.S. equities ahead of classic volatility engendered by CPI data.

Bitcoin (BTC) followed analysts’ predictions with sideways action continuing near $19,000 at the Oct. 11 Wall Street open.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price follows stocks downhill

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as the pair sat at important support ahead of fresh macro triggers.

Brief dips below the $19,000 mark the day prior had been short lived, with sellers subsequently returning in an attempt to effect a deeper downtrend.

The largest cryptocurrency thus looked to be waiting for external catalysts to determine the price trajectory, these due to begin in earnest from Oct. 12 with the United States releasing economic performance figures.

Oct. 13 remained the key date, however, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for September due.

“As expected, with little to no crypto narrative to follow, crypto has been driven purely by macro forces,” trading platform QCP Capital wrote in its latest market update to Telegram channel subscribers on the day.

“In that regard, all eyes are on the Fed and by extension on CPI print this Thursday, where uncertainty remains high.”

QCP added that the crypto market correlation to traditional risk assets had reached new all-time highs, while against the U.S. dollar, the inverse correlation was also higher than ever before.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) continued reclaiming lost ground on the day, eyeing $113.30, while in the first hour’s trading, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were down 1.2% and 1.6%, respectively.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

“Ultimately, as the liquidity tap is tightened fully, core CPI remains sticky above target, and geopolitical risks start to weight in more, Q4 will definitely be more challenging,” QCP concluded about the broader outlook.

“Final bottoming out phase” for BTC

Outside short-term price action, the debate over how and when Bitcoin would put in a macro bottom continued.

Related: Biggest mining difficulty spike in 14 months — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

This time, it was popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital looking to past halving cycles to determine the timing.

As Cointelegraph reported earlier, current perspectives include the belief that June’s $17,600 reversal marked the macro price floor.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter

“According the Three Macro Triangles, BTC is now in the Final Bottoming Out phase in an effort to form a generational Bear Market bottom,” Rekt Capital commented alongside a comparative chart.

A bottom in Q4 would be chronologically right on schedule, with the prior cycle floor coming in December 2018.

On the way down, meanwhile, analysis is eyeing significant support at Bitcoin’s investor cost basis at $19,000, along with whales’ cost basis at $15,800.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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