The fun could be over at $20,000, analysis warns as U.S. equities feel the burn and the dollar makes up for lost time.
Bitcoin (BTC) cooled near $19,200 after the Oct. 14 Wall Street open as stocks struggled to preserve their “bear trap.”
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Analyst: “Abandon all hope” for asset price rebound
The pair had seen intense volatility on the back of United States economic data the day prior, this sparking hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations from both long and short positions.
Now, after turning the tables and adding almost $2,000 in 24 hours, Bitcoin was again losing momentum as U.S. equities turned red on the day.
At the time of writing, the S&P 500 was down 1.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index traded a gruesome 5.4% lower.
Investigating the status quo, Alasdair Macleod, head of research at Goldmoney, pointed to rampant gains in long-dated U.S. bonds as a key factor in the pressure being felt across markets.
“US Try bond yields continue to soar,” he commented.
“So long as this is the case abandon all hope for financial asset values.”
The U.S. dollar index, a classic headwind maker for risk assets, made strong progress on the day, passing 113.4 before consolidating.
U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView
With the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) print released, sentiment was now overwhelmingly leaning toward the Federal Reserve enacting a further 75-basis-point rate hike in November.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of a lower 50-point hike were just 2.1% as of Oct. 14.
Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group
Macleod meanwhile noted that even under existing dollar strength, major world currencies were showing increasing strain, among them the Japanese yen and, increasingly, the Chinese yuan. The former traded at its lowest versus the U.S. dollar in 34 years on the day.
Pundits see BTC bears winning out
Planning ahead, Bitcoin analysts continued to favor downside regaining control of short-term BTC price action.
Il Capo of Crypto reiterated an existing theory involving a push to near $21,000 before a new macro bottoming sequence ensued.
Closer to home, Jibon, known as Trader_J, saw the current highs petering out at or above $20,000, with a trip to the lows near $18,000 on the menu in the coming days.
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Trader_J/ Twitter
For Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, the current spot price was an important line in the sand.
“Bitcoin broke up even more, through which the area around $19.4K is important to sustain,” he concluded on the day.
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