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Last week, major cryptocurrencies were on a rollercoaster ride as a wave of news sent shockwaves through the market. Investors are scrambling to make sense of it all from the early week’s U.S. CPI and PPI data, negative inflow in spot ETFs, and Bitcoin miner capitulation. One key question is on everyone’s mind: has Bitcoin begun a prolonged correction, or is this just a temporary bump on the road?
Analyst Ted (@tedtalksmacro) provides insights into the key elements influencing Bitcoin’s outlook.
Understanding Changing Economic Landscape
Recent US economic data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), indicated good news for risk assets like Bitcoin. These numbers suggest that inflation pressures are low, which usually helps assets seen as safe havens during economic uncertainty.
However, despite positive economic signals, the FED’s cautious approach to potential interest rate cuts adds FOMO to the market. The next FOMC meeting and its updated forecasts will give more insight into the Fed’s plans for interest rates, affecting how investors feel about Bitcoin and other markets.
Evaluating the Trading Setup
In the current scenario, Ted believes Bitcoin must stay above $66,000 to maintain stability. It could boost confidence and attract more buyers if it holds above this level. However, dropping below $66,000 may lead to selling pressure and a price decline, negatively affecting market sentiment.
Traders closely watch Bitcoin’s weekly trading range of $65,100 to $74,100 and Ethereum’s range of $3,388 to $4,025. These ranges give insights into both cryptocurrencies’ market expectations and potential price movements.
Broader Investment Trends
Notably, US tech stocks, like NASDAQ, have reached new highs due to expectations of central bank monetary policies. This divergence between tech stocks and Bitcoin suggests a broader market sentiment shift that could affect Bitcoin’s performance. Investment flows into Bitcoin-related ETFs, critical market sentiment indicators, are expected to resume as clarity emerges from key economic announcements.
Ethereum’s Potential and Global Economic Factors
According to the analyst, Ethereum may catch up to Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market. The prospect of Ethereum ETF launches on Wall Street boosts its potential, showing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decisions will also affect economic stability and investor confidence. Rate cuts are unlikely this week, but indications of future changes could affect the global market mood.
Bottom Line
Overall, Bitcoin’s current price is 10% below its all-time high of $73,750, a 20-30% decline is normal for this volatile asset. However, the broader trend remains positive, and the current correction offers investors opportunities to buy the dip. Currently trading at $65,965, Bitcoin is eagerly awaiting further developments that could sway its direction.