Leveraged bulls seem to be unprepared for Bitcoin’s $1.14 billion monthly options expiring on November 25. The month-end options expiration for Bitcoin is scheduled tomorrow at 8:00 AM UTC and $1.14 billion worth of bitcoin will expire. Data from Coinglass showed that traders were still split, with the difference between bullish and bearish bets being relatively small.
When Bitcoin tested the $15,500 support on November 20, it experienced a loss of more than 7%. Despite how minor the correction may appear, it resulted in $230 million worth of future liquidations. Since November 11, Bitcoin has not recorded a daily close of over $17,000. This could, however, benefit the bears despite the 6% rally from the $15,500 bottom.
Important levels, scenarios, and bets
The psychological levels of $16k, $17k, and $18k appeared to be the most attractive to traders. At precisely 16k, put OI was at 3.3k BTC, favoring bulls, while call OI was at 1.06k BTC.
While most bullish bets are focused on upward targets, most bearish bets are placed at lower strike prices. The placement of bearish bets was somewhat higher than that of bullish bets at a $17k strike price, as shown below. This crude calculation includes both put and call options, which are only utilized in neutral to bearish trades and bullish wagers, respectively.
Because calls have an advantage, the loss would be minimal if Bitcoin hovers around $16.5k. However, if Bitcoin trades at $16k or $17k, it will probably give in to the pressure from the put traders.
There’s a chance the expiry won’t happen
The amount of calls and puts at $18k was mostly identical (2.67k vs. 2.38k BTC). Therefore, if the price stays at the specified level, the expiry may not even occur because the at-par bullish and bearish bets will ultimately cancel each other out. The chances of this scenario coming to play are low given the adverse market conditions.