Here’s why.
Bitcoin’s history is filled with attempts to register an ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), none of which have been successful so far. However, this could be about to change for a number of reasons.
Meanwhile, the bitcoin sell-off appears to have been cut short as buyers stepped in just before a record $6 billion in options contracts expire this weekend. The balance of probabilities has shifted in a mere 48 hours.
Let’s dig in.
The lack of a Bitcoin ETF in the United States (and elsewhere) has led institutional investors to seek other avenues such as Grayscale to gain exposure to bitcoin, ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies. However, with ETF filings on the increase again and a new US administration taking the reigns, the time for regulated ETFs is fast approaching.
Today, several interlinked forces conspire to make an SEC-approved Bitcoin ETF a reality and the chances of it happening this year are not slim. If this were to happen, it’s overwhelmingly likely that new money would flow into crypto from multi-billion-dollar pension and passive funds, creating more de facto HODLers in the process.
Check out the full analysis here!
Technically speaking
Bitcoin correction cut short?
Bitcoin broke out of the consolidation structure and bounced off the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) indicator. So far, buyers have stepped in, and the $50,000 bear target has been cut short. At the time of publishing, BTC/USD is once again testing the technical point of control after having developed a bullish LTF (low-time-frame) structure on the 4-hour chart (described on Twitter and in the telegram channel).
Additionally, bitcoin trends above the 20-daily EMA ($55,571) at the time of writing, having printed a hidden bullish divergence that could unwind short-orders all the way into ATH territory. When a bitcoin trend shifts, it is typically confirmed by a quick cascading sell-off that breaks the market structure on increasing sell-side volume. So far, this did not happen.
On March 26th, a record $6.1 billion in bitcoin options are set to expire. A significant amount of the contracts are already worthless, and this number will increase if the price holds above $52,000. $1.15 billion in Ether options will also expire on the same day.
All in all, expect fireworks to kick off this weekend.
Levels to watch
- 4-hour close below $53,600 suggests a move to $50,000
- 4-hour close above $58,000 suggests an impulsive move to ATH.
I will be snowboarding somewhere in Eastern Europe close to a forest on the lookout for bears. I can’t find any here.
Bulls lead the way.
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Christopher Attard
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Originally published at https://mailchi.mp.
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Bitcoin ETF Filings Could Get SEC Approval in 2021 was originally published in The Capital on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.