Online bettors on blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket are predicting that US President Joe Biden will withdraw from the upcoming US elections after his spotty performance during the presidential debate against Donald Trump.
Punters rate Biden’s chances of dropping out of the races at 38 cents against 63 cents. The bet has attracted over $7 million worth of bets as of press time.
Similarly, forecasting startup Manifold shows a similar sentiment. The firm reports that the odds of Biden being the Democratic candidate for the forthcoming election plummeted to 68% from 94% within the past day.
Jim Bianco from Bianco Research noted the exceptionally high volume of bets placed, stating that prediction markets are “real-time, so when events like last night happen, they can measure how much things have changed… Biden’s odds (blue line) fell much more than Trump’s odds (red line) rose.” He further commented,
“Our interpretation is that Biden is in a deep hole that he may be unable to climb out of. However, if Biden is replaced with someone acceptable, Trump might not win either.
In other words, Trump may have had a pyrrhic victory last night.”
US Elections 2024 prediction market (Bianco)
Why are people betting on a Biden dropout?
The bettors’ actions on prediction markets reveal the extent of the reaction to Biden’s performance at the first presidential debate.
Market experts noted that replacing Biden just months before the election is unprecedented in modern times and would be recently considered unthinkable. Yet, his debate performance has sparked many questions about his health and cognitive ability.
Demetri Sevastopulo, the US-China Correspondent for Financial Times, reported:
“Democratic lawmaker tells me a wide cross section of House Democrats were texting each other during the debate with same conclusion [of] Biden must dropout of the race. They are suggesting an open convention to excite voters.”
Who could replace Biden?
Data from Polymarket indicates that bettors are speculating on potential candidates to replace Biden. The “Democratic Nominee 2024” market on the site has drawn nearly $62 million in bets, with Biden still leading.
Interestingly, California Governor Gavin Newsom’s odds have risen to 15%, reflecting growing support. Newsom, a Biden supporter, praised the President’s debate performance.
Meanwhile, Michelle Obama, former US First Lady, has a 9% chance of being a contender, while Biden’s Vice President Kamala Harris is also a strong possibility, with 8% odds.
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